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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Star Starachowice — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice
11/3/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik30%
×Draw25%
Star Starachowice45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.25
Star Starachowice
1.57

Star Starachowice creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Star Starachowice
1.41

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Star Starachowice
1.27

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Star Starachowice+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Star Starachowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
55%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Star Starachowice
75%
Draw or Star Starachowice
70%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
13%
Star Starachowice wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
71%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
36%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
13%
Star Starachowice 1+ goals
79%
Star Starachowice 2+ goals
46%
Star Starachowice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
40%
Star Starachowice (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Star Starachowice away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Star Starachowice defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Star Starachowice attack 1.41 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
30%
level
25%
Star Starachowice scores more
45%

Star Starachowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Star Starachowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Star Starachowice

Star Starachowice beat Świdniczanka Świdnik 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion KS Świdniczanka in Świdnik.