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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
11/8/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 16Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik35%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.30
Stal Kraśnik
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
60%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
65%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
15%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
73%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
37%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
14%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
76%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
41%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
47%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
35%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
40%

Stal Kraśnik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Stal Kraśnik

Świdniczanka Świdnik beat Stal Kraśnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.