Świdniczanka Świdnik 0–4 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Świdniczanka Świdnik

FT

0 – 4

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

3/20/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik30%

×Draw24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Świdniczanka ŚwidnikExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.63

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.27

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.63

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 89 away

1.24

creates per match

1.53

1.73

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.24

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.73

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw

54%

Świdniczanka Świdnik or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

76%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

70%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

13%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

72%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

36%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

14%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

80%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

48%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

39%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

30%

level

24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

46%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff