Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–2 Świdniczanka Świdnik

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Świdniczanka Świdnik

6/7/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg59%

×Draw21%

Świdniczanka Świdnik20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Siarka TarnobrzegExpected goals in this matchŚwidniczanka Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.09

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.04

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.09

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 87% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 51 away

2.25

creates per match

1.16

1.03

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.25

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.16

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.03

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Świdniczanka Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw

80%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Świdniczanka Świdnik

79%

Draw or Świdniczanka Świdnik

41%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

36%

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

87%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

60%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

33%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

66%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

30%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

75%

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.04

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.16 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

59%

level

21%

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff