Świdniczanka Świdnik 0–0 Podhale Nowy Targ

Świdniczanka Świdnik

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Podhale Nowy Targ

5/25/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik33%

×Draw25%

Podhale Nowy Targ42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Świdniczanka ŚwidnikExpected goals in this matchPodhale Nowy Targ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.55

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.36

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.55

Podhale Nowy Targ creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 86 away

1.24

creates per match

1.38

1.73

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.24

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.38

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik

1.73

Podhale Nowy Targ

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par

Podhale Nowy Targ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Podhale Nowy Targ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw

58%

Świdniczanka Świdnik or Podhale Nowy Targ

75%

Draw or Podhale Nowy Targ

67%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+

15%

Podhale Nowy Targ wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals

74%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals

39%

Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals

16%

Podhale Nowy Targ 1+ goals

79%

Podhale Nowy Targ 2+ goals

46%

Podhale Nowy Targ 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)

44%

Podhale Nowy Targ (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Podhale Nowy Targ away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.49 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Podhale Nowy Targ defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Podhale Nowy Targ attack 1.38 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more

33%

level

25%

Podhale Nowy Targ scores more

42%

Podhale Nowy Targ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Podhale Nowy Targ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff