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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
9/30/2023III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion KS Świdniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik39%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.56
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
63%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
61%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
19%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
79%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
46%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
21%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
78%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
45%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
51%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
39%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
37%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Świdniczanka Świdnik 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion KS Świdniczanka in Świdnik.