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Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Świdniczanka Świdnik
Świdniczanka Świdnik
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lewart
Lewart
8/21/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Świdniczanka Świdnik43%
×Draw25%
Lewart33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.56
Lewart
1.34

Świdniczanka Świdnik creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.24
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Świdniczanka Świdnik
1.73
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Świdniczanka Świdnik+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Świdniczanka Świdnik ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Świdniczanka Świdnik or draw
67%
Świdniczanka Świdnik or Lewart
75%
Draw or Lewart
57%

Winning margin

Świdniczanka Świdnik wins by 2+
21%
Lewart wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Świdniczanka Świdnik 1+ goals
79%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 2+ goals
46%
Świdniczanka Świdnik 3+ goals
21%
Lewart 1+ goals
74%
Lewart 2+ goals
39%
Lewart 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Świdniczanka Świdnik (draw refunded)
56%
Lewart (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Świdniczanka Świdnik at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Świdniczanka Świdnik attack 1.24 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Lewart attack 0.95 + Świdniczanka Świdnik defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Świdniczanka Świdnik scores more
43%
level
25%
Lewart scores more
33%

Świdniczanka Świdnik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Świdniczanka Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Świdniczanka Świdnik vs Lewart

Lewart beat Świdniczanka Świdnik 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.