Swedru All Blacks 1–1 Nations: Result & Stats

Swedru All Blacks

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nations

1/11/2026

Premier League · Round 18Swedru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Swedru All Blacks49%

×Draw32%

Nations19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swedru All BlacksExpected goals in this matchNations

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.56

Swedru All Blacks

1.11

Nations

0.56

Swedru All Blacks creates 98% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

1.24

creates per match

0.53

0.59

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Swedru All Blacks

1.24

Nations

0.53

allows per match

Swedru All Blacks

0.59

Nations

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par

Nations+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swedru All Blacks ↓

Nations →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

50%50%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Swedru All Blacks or draw

81%

Swedru All Blacks or Nations

68%

Draw or Nations

51%

Winning margin

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+

21%

Nations wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals

67%

Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals

30%

Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals

10%

Nations 1+ goals

43%

Nations 2+ goals

11%

Nations 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)

73%

Nations (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swedru All Blacks at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Nations away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.98 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swedru All Blacks attack 1.24 + Nations defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Nations attack 0.53 + Swedru All Blacks defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Swedru All Blacks scores more

49%

level

32%

Nations scores more

19%

Swedru All Blacks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Swedru All Blacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff