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Swedru All Blacks vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Swedru All Blacks
Swedru All Blacks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Karela
Karela
12/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Swedru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Swedru All Blacks53%
×Draw30%
Karela18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swedru All Blacks
1.27
Karela
0.60

Swedru All Blacks creates 112% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Swedru All Blacks
1.24
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Swedru All Blacks
0.59
Karela
1.31

finishing

Swedru All Blacks+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swedru All Blacks ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Swedru All Blacks or draw
82%
Swedru All Blacks or Karela
70%
Draw or Karela
47%

Winning margin

Swedru All Blacks wins by 2+
25%
Karela wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Swedru All Blacks 1+ goals
72%
Swedru All Blacks 2+ goals
36%
Swedru All Blacks 3+ goals
14%
Karela 1+ goals
45%
Karela 2+ goals
12%
Karela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Swedru All Blacks (draw refunded)
75%
Karela (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swedru All Blacks at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swedru All Blacks attack 1.24 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Karela attack 0.61 + Swedru All Blacks defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Swedru All Blacks scores more
53%
level
30%
Karela scores more
18%

Swedru All Blacks at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Swedru All Blacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Swedru All Blacks 1–1 Karela

Swedru All Blacks and Karela drew 1-1 in Premier League on December 28, 2025.

The match was played at Swedru Stadium in Agona Swedru.