Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sweden W vs USA W — World Cup - Women 2019

Sweden W
Sweden Wadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
USA W
USA W
L. Hurtig 120+14' (pen)
M. Eriksson 120+12' (pen)
H. Bennison 120+10' (pen)
E. Rubensson 120+4' (pen)
F. Rolfö 120+2' (pen)
A. Naeher 120+11' (pen)
K. Mewis 120+5' (pen)
L. Horan 120+3' (pen)
A. Sullivan 120+1' (pen)
8/6/2023World Cup - WomenWorld Cup - Women · Round of 16Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sweden W47%
×Draw25%
USA W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden W
1.55
USA W
1.14

Sweden W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sweden W
2.50
USA W
1.60

allows per match

Sweden W
0.67
USA W
0.60

finishing

Sweden W+0.00on par
USA W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden W ↓

USA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sweden W or draw
72%
Sweden W or USA W
75%
Draw or USA W
53%

Winning margin

Sweden W wins by 2+
24%
USA W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sweden W 1+ goals
79%
Sweden W 2+ goals
46%
Sweden W 3+ goals
20%
USA W 1+ goals
68%
USA W 2+ goals
32%
USA W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sweden W (draw refunded)
63%
USA W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

USA W away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden W attack 2.50 + USA W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

USA W attack 1.60 + Sweden W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sweden W scores more
47%
level
25%
USA W scores more
28%

Sweden W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sweden W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
Z. MušovićSweden WSweden W · G
10.0

Match Events

49'
Kosovare Asllani
66'
L. Williams← T. Rodman
82'
L. Hurtig← K. Asllani
82'
S. Jakobsson← J. Rytting Kaneryd
97'
H. Bennison← F. Angeldahl
99'
M. Rapinoe← A. Morgan
112'
R. Blomqvist← S. Blackstenius
119'
Julie Ertz
120'
K. Mewis← E. Sonnett
120'
K. O'Hara← E. Fox
120+1'
A. SullivanPenalty
120+2'
F. RolföPenalty
120+3'
L. HoranPenalty
120+4'
E. RubenssonPenalty
120+5'
K. MewisPenalty
120+6'
N. BjörnMissed penalty
120+7'
M. RapinoeMissed penalty
120+8'
R. BlomqvistMissed penalty
120+9'
S. SmithMissed penalty
120+10'
H. BennisonPenalty
120+11'
A. NaeherPenalty
120+12'
M. ErikssonPenalty
120+13'
K. O'HaraMissed penalty
120+14'
L. HurtigPenalty

Possession

42%Sweden

Shots

9Sweden

Pass accuracy

47%Sweden

Statistics

SwedenUSA
Overview
42%Possession58%
9Total Shots22
3Corners9
15Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots22
1On Target11
1Off Target8
7Blocked3
5Inside Box14
4Outside Box8
Passing
42%Possession58%
429Total Passes583
298Accurate Passes451
69%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
11Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Sweden W vs USA W

Sweden W and USA W drew 0-0 in World Cup - Women on August 6, 2023.

Goals: A. Sullivan (120+1' pen), F. Rolfö (120+2' pen), L. Horan (120+3' pen), E. Rubensson (120+4' pen), K. Mewis (120+5' pen), H. Bennison (120+10' pen), A. Naeher (120+11' pen), M. Eriksson (120+12' pen), L. Hurtig (120+14' pen).

USA W controlled possession (58%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Melbourne.