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Sweden W vs South Africa W — World Cup - Women 2019

Sweden W
Sweden W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
South Africa W
South Africa W
A. Ilestedt 90'
F. Rolfö 65'
H. Magaia 48'
7/23/2023World Cup - WomenWorld Cup - Women · Group Stage - 1Sky Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden W71%
×Draw17%
South Africa W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden W
2.38
South Africa W
0.83

Sweden W creates 187% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sweden W
2.50
South Africa W
1.00

allows per match

Sweden W
0.67
South Africa W
2.25

finishing

Sweden W+0.00on par
South Africa W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden W ↓

South Africa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sweden W or draw
89%
Sweden W or South Africa W
83%
Draw or South Africa W
29%

Winning margin

Sweden W wins by 2+
48%
South Africa W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sweden W 1+ goals
91%
Sweden W 2+ goals
68%
Sweden W 3+ goals
42%
South Africa W 1+ goals
56%
South Africa W 2+ goals
20%
South Africa W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sweden W (draw refunded)
86%
South Africa W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

South Africa W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden W attack 2.50 + South Africa W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

South Africa W attack 1.00 + Sweden W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sweden W scores more
71%
level
17%
South Africa W scores more
11%

Sweden W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sweden W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
A. IlestedtSweden WSweden W · D
8.2

Match Events

48'
H. Magaia
56'
G. Salgado← H. Magaia
65'
F. Rolfö↳ J. Rytting Kaneryd
67'
H. Bennison← F. Angeldahl
67'
O. Schough← F. Rolfö
67'
R. Blomqvist← S. Blackstenius
67'
N. Kgoale← L. Motlhalo
74'
Kholosa Biyana
81'
C. Seger← E. Rubensson
88'
L. Hurtig← J. Rytting Kaneryd
89'
Refiloe Jane
90'
A. Ilestedt↳ K. Asllani

Possession

69%Sweden

Shots

15Sweden

Pass accuracy

60%Sweden

Statistics

SwedenSouth
Overview
69%Possession31%
15Total Shots10
13Corners1
9Fouls8
Shots
15Total Shots10
6On Target4
5Off Target5
4Blocked1
11Inside Box6
4Outside Box4
Passing
69%Possession31%
548Total Passes253
429Accurate Passes135
78%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

World Cup - Women: Sweden W 2–1 South Africa W

Sweden W beat South Africa W 2-1 in World Cup - Women on July 23, 2023.

Goals: H. Magaia (48'), F. Rolfö (65'), A. Ilestedt (90').

Sweden W controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sky Stadium in Wellington.