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Sweden vs Slovenia — League #32 2026

Sweden
Sweden
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
G. Lundgren 87'
T. Elsnik 64'
11/18/2025League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 10Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sweden63%
×Draw22%
Slovenia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden
1.85
Slovenia
0.78

Sweden creates 137% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sweden
2.50
Slovenia
0.80

allows per match

Sweden
0.75
Slovenia
1.20

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sweden or draw
85%
Sweden or Slovenia
78%
Draw or Slovenia
37%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+
37%
Slovenia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals
84%
Sweden 2+ goals
55%
Sweden 3+ goals
28%
Slovenia 1+ goals
54%
Slovenia 2+ goals
18%
Slovenia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)
80%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.50 + Slovenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slovenia attack 0.80 + Sweden defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sweden scores more
63%
level
22%
Slovenia scores more
15%

Sweden at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
D. SvenssonSwedenSweden · D
7.6

Match Events

24'
Besfort Zeneli
38'
E. Forsberg← K. Sema
64'
T. Elsnik↳ A. Sporar
65'
G. Gudmundsson← E. Krafth
66'
H. Johansson← M. Svanberg
66'
A. Bernhardsson← R. Bardghji
69'
T. Horvat← S. Seslar
72'
Žan Karničnik
84'
G. Lagerbielke← V. Lindelof
86'
Herman Johansson
87'
G. Lundgren↳ G. Lagerbielke
88'
D. Petrovic← T. Elsnik
89'
J. Mlakar← D. Sturm
90+6'
J. Gorenc Stankovic← A. Sporar

Possession

61%Sweden

Shots

11Sweden

Pass accuracy

51%Sweden

Statistics

SwedenSlovenia
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots17
1.01Expected Goals (xG)2.17
6Corners7
6Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots17
2On Target3
5Off Target4
4Blocked10
8Inside Box12
3Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
626Total Passes393
557Accurate Passes330
89%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

League #32: Sweden 1–1 Slovenia

Sweden and Slovenia drew 1-1 in League #32 on November 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Elsnik (64'), G. Lundgren (87').

Sweden controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.