Sweden 2–1 Slovakia: Result & Stats

Sweden

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Slovakia

A. Isak 48'

V. Gyökeres 3'

D. Hancko 19'

11/16/2024

UEFA Nations League · League C - 5Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Sweden46%

×Draw28%

Slovakia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwedenExpected goals in this matchSlovakia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.96

Sweden

1.36

Slovakia

0.96

Sweden creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

0.82

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sweden

1.73

Slovakia

0.82

allows per match

Sweden

1.09

Slovakia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par

Slovakia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Slovakia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sweden or draw

74%

Sweden or Slovakia

72%

Draw or Slovakia

54%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+

22%

Slovakia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals

74%

Sweden 2+ goals

39%

Sweden 3+ goals

16%

Slovakia 1+ goals

62%

Slovakia 2+ goals

25%

Slovakia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)

63%

Slovakia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Slovakia away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 1.73 + Slovakia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Slovakia attack 0.82 + Sweden defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sweden scores more

46%

level

28%

Slovakia scores more

26%

Sweden at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Isak

Sweden · F

9.7

Match Events

3'

V. Gyökeres↳ A. Isak

15'

Isak Hien

19'

D. Hancko

26'

C. Starfelt← V. Lindelöf

28'

40'

45+2'

48'

57'

58'

59'

67'

T. Rigo← O. Duda

69'

Milan Škriniar

75'

E. Holm← N. Eliasson

75'

J. Karlström← Y. Ayari

88'

Emil Holm

90'

Milan Škriniar

90'

Milan Škriniar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwedenSlovakia

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots6

6Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots6

8On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked0

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

508Total Passes331

407Accurate Passes243

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1