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Sweden vs Poland — Euro Championship 2024

Sweden
Sweden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Poland
Poland
V. Claesson 90+4'
E. Forsberg 59', 2'
R. Lewandowski 84', 61'
6/23/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group E - 3Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sweden47%
×Draw27%
Poland26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden
1.45
Poland
1.00

Sweden creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sweden
2.00
Poland
1.30

allows per match

Sweden
0.71
Poland
0.90

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par
Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Poland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sweden or draw
74%
Sweden or Poland
73%
Draw or Poland
53%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+
23%
Poland wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals
77%
Sweden 2+ goals
42%
Sweden 3+ goals
18%
Poland 1+ goals
63%
Poland 2+ goals
26%
Poland 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)
65%
Poland (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Poland away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.00 + Poland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Poland attack 1.30 + Sweden defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sweden scores more
47%
level
27%
Poland scores more
26%

Sweden at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Emil ForsbergSwedenSweden · M
8.5

Match Events

2'
E. Forsberg↳ A. Isak
10'
M. Danielson
46'
P. Frankowski← T. Puchacz
55'
D. Kulusevski← R. Quaison
59'
E. Forsberg↳ D. Kulusevski
61'
J. Świerczok← K. Jóźwiak
61'
R. Lewandowski↳ P. Zieliński
68'
E. Krafth← M. Lustig
68'
M. Berg← A. Isak
73'
K. Kozłowski← M. Klich
74'
G. Krychowiak
77'
V. Claesson← E. Forsberg
78'
P. Płacheta← G. Krychowiak
83'
K. Glik
84'
R. Lewandowski↳ P. Frankowski
90+4'
V. Claesson↳ D. Kulusevski

Possession

33%Sweden

Shots

11Sweden

Pass accuracy

41%Sweden

Statistics

SwedenPoland
Overview
33%Possession67%
11Total Shots18
6Corners10
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots18
4On Target6
4Off Target6
3Blocked6
6Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
33%Possession67%
251Total Passes480
140Accurate Passes386
56%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Sweden vs Poland

Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in Euro Championship on June 23, 2021.

Goals: E. Forsberg (2', 59'), R. Lewandowski (61', 84'), V. Claesson (90+4').

Poland controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.