Sweden 5–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

Sweden

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Northern Ireland

Anthony Elanga 77'

Alexander Isak 64'

Ken Sema 59'

Benjamin Nygren 32'

Emil Holm 7'

Isaac Price 89'

3/25/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sweden57%

×Draw23%

Northern Ireland20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwedenExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.97

Sweden

1.80

Northern Ireland

0.97

Sweden creates 86% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

0.81

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Sweden

2.00

Northern Ireland

1.13

allows per match

Sweden

0.81

Northern Ireland

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sweden or draw

80%

Sweden or Northern Ireland

77%

Draw or Northern Ireland

43%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+

32%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals

83%

Sweden 2+ goals

54%

Sweden 3+ goals

27%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

62%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

25%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)

74%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.00 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Sweden defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sweden scores more

57%

level

23%

Northern Ireland scores more

20%

Sweden at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Alexander Isak

Sweden · F

9.0

Match Events

7'

Emil Holm↳ Alexander Isak

32'

Benjamin Nygren

59'

Ken Sema

64'

Alexander Isak↳ Sebastian Nanasi

68'

Callum Marshall← George Saville

68'

Jordan Thompson← Terry Devlin

69'

Anton Salétros

71'

Niclas Eliasson← Emil Holm

71'

Anthony Elanga← Sebastian Nanasi

77'

Anthony Elanga↳ Niclas Eliasson

78'

Paul Smyth← Brodie Spencer

78'

Lee Bonis← Jamie Donley

78'

Bradley Lyons← Justin Devenny

80'

Jesper Karlström← Anton Salétros

80'

Gustaf Lagerbielke← Yasin Ayari

81'

Besfort Zeneli← Isak Hien

86'

Melker Widell← Benjamin Nygren

89'

Isaac Price

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwedenNorthern

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots14

5Corners3

18Fouls5

Shots

16Total Shots14

6On Target5

7Off Target7

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box8

Passing

59%Possession41%

579Total Passes400

507Accurate Passes326

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls5

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides1

Friendlies: Sweden 5–1 Northern Ireland

Sweden beat Northern Ireland 5-1 in Friendlies on March 25, 2025.

Goals: Emil Holm (7'), Benjamin Nygren (32'), Ken Sema (59'), Alexander Isak (64'), Anthony Elanga (77'), Isaac Price (89').

Sweden controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.

Sweden vs Northern Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Sweden 5–1 Northern Ireland