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Sweden vs Malta — Euro Championship 2024

Sweden
Sweden
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malta
Malta
A. Isak 81'
V. Claesson 50'
R. Quaison 2'
6/7/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sweden83%
×Draw13%
Malta4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden
2.40
Malta
0.35

Sweden creates 586% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sweden
2.00
Malta
0.00

allows per match

Sweden
0.71
Malta
2.80

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sweden or draw
96%
Sweden or Malta
87%
Draw or Malta
17%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+
60%
Malta wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals
91%
Sweden 2+ goals
69%
Sweden 3+ goals
42%
Malta 1+ goals
30%
Malta 2+ goals
5%
Malta 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)
95%
Malta (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Malta away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.00 + Malta defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.40

Malta attack 0.00 + Sweden defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Sweden scores more
83%
level
13%
Malta scores more
4%

Sweden at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
H. BonelloMaltaMalta · G
8.3

Match Events

2'
R. Quaison
35'
Luke Montebello
50'
V. Claesson↳ M. Berg
64'
P. Fenech← J. Grech
69'
A. Isak← M. Berg
71'
K. Nwoko← L. Montebello
77'
S. Larsson← A. Ekdal
80'
F. Apap← S. Borg
81'
A. Isak
85'
J. Guidetti← R. Quaison

Possession

64%Sweden

Shots

26Sweden

Pass accuracy

54%Sweden

Statistics

SwedenMalta
Overview
64%Possession36%
26Total Shots3
11Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
26Total Shots3
14On Target1
9Off Target2
3Blocked0
18Inside Box1
8Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
599Total Passes333
502Accurate Passes240
84%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
9Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
6Offsides2

Euro Championship: Sweden 3–0 Malta

Sweden beat Malta 3-0 in Euro Championship on June 7, 2019.

Goals: R. Quaison (2'), V. Claesson (50'), A. Isak (81').

Sweden controlled possession (64%) and registered 26 shots to 3.

The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.