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Sweden vs Estonia — Friendlies 2026

Sweden
Sweden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Estonia
Estonia
1/12/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sweden60%
×Draw24%
Estonia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden
1.68
Estonia
0.74

Sweden creates 127% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sweden
1.80
Estonia
0.63

allows per match

Sweden
0.85
Estonia
1.56

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par
Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Estonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sweden or draw
84%
Sweden or Estonia
76%
Draw or Estonia
40%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+
33%
Estonia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals
81%
Sweden 2+ goals
50%
Sweden 3+ goals
24%
Estonia 1+ goals
52%
Estonia 2+ goals
17%
Estonia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)
79%
Estonia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 1.80 + Estonia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Estonia attack 0.63 + Sweden defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sweden scores more
60%
level
24%
Estonia scores more
16%

Sweden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sweden vs Estonia

Sweden beat Estonia 2-1 in Friendlies on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Stelios Kyriakides in Paphos.