Sweden 0–2 England: Result & Stats | World Cup

Sweden

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

England

D. Alli 58'

H. Maguire 30'

7/7/2018

World Cup · Quarter-finalsSolidarnost Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden36%

×Draw25%

England39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwedenExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.50

Sweden

1.44

England

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

2.25

0.75

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sweden

1.75

England

2.25

allows per match

Sweden

0.75

England

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sweden or draw

61%

Sweden or England

75%

Draw or England

64%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+

17%

England wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals

76%

Sweden 2+ goals

42%

Sweden 3+ goals

18%

England 1+ goals

78%

England 2+ goals

44%

England 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)

48%

England (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

England away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 1.75 + England defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

England attack 2.25 + Sweden defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sweden scores more

36%

level

25%

England scores more

39%

England at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

H. Maguire

England · D

7.6

Match Events

30'

H. Maguire↳ A. Young

58'

D. Alli↳ J. Lingard

65'

M. Olsson← E. Forsberg

65'

J. Guidetti← O. Toivonen

77'

F. Delph← D. Alli

85'

P. Jansson← E. Krafth

85'

E. Dier← J. Henderson

87'

Harry Maguire

88'

John Guidetti

90'

Sebastian Larsson

90+1'

M. Rashford← R. Sterling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwedenEngland

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots12

1Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target2

2Off Target4

1Blocked6

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

366Total Passes502

265Accurate Passes401

72%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1