Sweden 3–1 Armenia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Sweden

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Armenia

M. Berg 85'

M. Danielsson 34'

E. Forsberg 16'

V. Bichakhchyan 64'

6/5/2021

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Friends Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sweden71%

×Draw16%

Armenia12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwedenExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

0.96

Sweden

2.55

Armenia

0.96

Sweden creates 166% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

1.10

0.81

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Sweden

2.00

Armenia

1.10

allows per match

Sweden

0.81

Armenia

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden ↓

Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sweden or draw

88%

Sweden or Armenia

84%

Draw or Armenia

29%

Winning margin

Sweden wins by 2+

49%

Armenia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sweden 1+ goals

92%

Sweden 2+ goals

72%

Sweden 3+ goals

46%

Armenia 1+ goals

62%

Armenia 2+ goals

25%

Armenia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sweden (draw refunded)

85%

Armenia (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden attack 2.00 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.55

Armenia attack 1.10 + Sweden defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sweden scores more

71%

level

16%

Armenia scores more

12%

Sweden at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sweden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

E. Forsberg

34'

M. Danielsson↳ E. Forsberg

46'

V. Claesson← S. Larsson

46'

T. Barseghyan← A. Miranyan

46'

A. Grigoryan← E. Spertsyan

46'

K. Muradyan← H. Hakobyan

46'

K. Bayramyan← W. Angulo

64'

V. Bichakhchyan

71'

Karen Muradyan

72'

M. Berg← A. Isak

72'

E. Krafth← M. Lustig

72'

R. Quaison← D. Kulusevski

72'

M. Svanberg← A. Ekdal

74'

A. Khachumyan← A. Calisir

80'

Viktor Claesson

84'

Z. Shaghoyan← S. Adamyan

85'

85'

90+3'

90'

90+2'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SwedenArmenia

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots3

10Corners1

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots3

5On Target2

6Off Target1

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Friendlies: Sweden 3–1 Armenia

Sweden beat Armenia 3-1 in Friendlies on June 5, 2021.

Goals: E. Forsberg (16'), M. Danielsson (34'), V. Bichakhchyan (64'), M. Berg (85').

Sweden controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 3.

The match was played at Friends Arena in Solna.

Sweden vs Armenia — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Friendlies: Sweden 3–1 Armenia