Sweden U23 W 1–1 Mexico U23 W: Result & Stats

Sweden U23 W

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mexico U23 W

S. Rehnberg 79'

M. P. Garcia Ramirez 61'

6/8/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden U23 W41%

×Draw28%

Mexico U23 W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U23 WExpected goals in this matchMexico U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Sweden U23 W

1.29

Mexico U23 W

1.07

Sweden U23 W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sweden U23 W

1.57

Mexico U23 W

1.00

allows per match

Sweden U23 W

1.14

Mexico U23 W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U23 W+0.00on par

Mexico U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U23 W ↓

Mexico U23 W →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sweden U23 W or draw

69%

Sweden U23 W or Mexico U23 W

72%

Draw or Mexico U23 W

59%

Winning margin

Sweden U23 W wins by 2+

19%

Mexico U23 W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sweden U23 W 1+ goals

72%

Sweden U23 W 2+ goals

37%

Sweden U23 W 3+ goals

14%

Mexico U23 W 1+ goals

66%

Mexico U23 W 2+ goals

29%

Mexico U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sweden U23 W (draw refunded)

57%

Mexico U23 W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sweden U23 W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Mexico U23 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U23 W attack 1.57 + Mexico U23 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Mexico U23 W attack 1.00 + Sweden U23 W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sweden U23 W scores more

41%

level

28%

Mexico U23 W scores more

31%

Sweden U23 W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sweden U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

M. P. Garcia Ramirez

79'

S. Rehnberg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff