Sweden U23 W 0–4 Germany U23 W: Result & Stats

Sweden U23 W

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Germany U23 W

M. Janzen 90'

M. Alber 75'

M. Steiner 69'

L. Muhlhaus 27'

10/27/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden U23 W41%

×Draw22%

Germany U23 W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U23 WExpected goals in this matchGermany U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.69

Sweden U23 W

1.79

Germany U23 W

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.57

creates per match

2.25

1.14

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sweden U23 W

1.57

Germany U23 W

2.25

allows per match

Sweden U23 W

1.14

Germany U23 W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U23 W+0.00on par

Germany U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U23 W ↓

Germany U23 W →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sweden U23 W or draw

63%

Sweden U23 W or Germany U23 W

78%

Draw or Germany U23 W

59%

Winning margin

Sweden U23 W wins by 2+

21%

Germany U23 W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sweden U23 W 1+ goals

83%

Sweden U23 W 2+ goals

53%

Sweden U23 W 3+ goals

26%

Germany U23 W 1+ goals

82%

Germany U23 W 2+ goals

50%

Germany U23 W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Sweden U23 W (draw refunded)

53%

Germany U23 W (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sweden U23 W at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Germany U23 W away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U23 W attack 1.57 + Germany U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Germany U23 W attack 2.25 + Sweden U23 W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sweden U23 W scores more

41%

level

22%

Germany U23 W scores more

37%

Sweden U23 W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sweden U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

69'

75'

90'

Sweden

Germany

⚽

⚽

⚽

Sweden U23 W substitutes

12Steen21Torstensson6Lundgren13Sjodahl14Rehnberg15Pelgander16Bjornberg17Svedberg19Duras20Martensson22Akgun23Westlund

Germany U23 W substitutes

12Beck2Gloning3Acikgoz4Diehm8Acikgoz11Baum19Boboy21Vobian22Blumenberg18Janzen14Stegemann1Grohs

Friendlies Women: Sweden U23 W 0–4 Germany U23 W

Germany U23 W beat Sweden U23 W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on October 27, 2025.

Goals: L. Muhlhaus (27'), M. Steiner (69'), M. Alber (75'), M. Janzen (90').

Sweden U23 W vs Germany U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Sweden U23 W 0–4 Germany U23 W