Sweden U19 W 0–1 Italy U19 W: Result & Stats

Sweden U19 W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Italy U19 W

G. Cimò 37'

6/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Women · Group Stage - 2Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sweden U19 W34%

×Draw29%

Italy U19 W36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19 WExpected goals in this matchItaly U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.10

Sweden U19 W

1.06

Italy U19 W

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sweden U19 W

0.80

Italy U19 W

1.00

allows per match

Sweden U19 W

1.20

Italy U19 W

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19 W+0.00on par

Italy U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 W ↓

Italy U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sweden U19 W or draw

64%

Sweden U19 W or Italy U19 W

71%

Draw or Italy U19 W

66%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 W wins by 2+

13%

Italy U19 W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sweden U19 W 1+ goals

65%

Sweden U19 W 2+ goals

29%

Sweden U19 W 3+ goals

9%

Italy U19 W 1+ goals

67%

Italy U19 W 2+ goals

30%

Italy U19 W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 W (draw refunded)

49%

Italy U19 W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Italy U19 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 W attack 0.80 + Italy U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Italy U19 W attack 1.00 + Sweden U19 W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sweden U19 W scores more

34%

level

29%

Italy U19 W scores more

36%

Italy U19 W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Italy U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

G. Cimò

57'

E. Lundin← T. Björklund

67'

M. Cherubini← M. Zamboni

75'

M. Sciabica← M. Perselli

75'

E. Girotto← E. Ferraresi

83'

L. Ihrfelt← N. Jensen

83'

S. Fredgren← T. Persson Welin

87'

R. Ventriglia← G. Cimò

Sweden

Italy

1

2

15

8

4

5

17

▼

Zamboni

6

Cherubini

9

▼

Ferraresi

10

⚽

▼

Cimò

11

▼

1

2

5

18

8

3

7

▼

Jensen

6

Larsson

16

▼

Björklund

10

Sjödahl

9

▼

Welin

Manager: Annelie Noren

57'▲E. Lundin←▼T. Björklund

83'▲L. Ihrfelt←▼N. Jensen

83'▲S. Fredgren←▼T. Persson Welin

Sweden U19 W substitutes

19Ihrfelt15Fredgren20Lundin11Björnberg14Sjöblom17Crona13Dahlman12Cavander4Andersson

Manager: Nicola Matteucci

67'▲M. Cherubini←▼M. Zamboni

75'▲M. Sciabica←▼M. Perselli

75'▲E. Girotto←▼E. Ferraresi

87'▲R. Ventriglia←▼G. Cimò

Italy U19 W substitutes

18Ventriglia19Sciabica7Girotto16Cherubini3Pizzuti14Bertora12Belli13Tosello20Tironi