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Sweden U19 vs San Marino U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Sweden U19
Sweden U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Marino U19
San Marino U19
D. Moretti 60' (OG)
B. Mbunga-Kimpioka 54'
D. Moretti 67'
11/14/2018UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 5Bangor University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden U1985%
×Draw10%
San Marino U196%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden U19
3.52
San Marino U19
0.85

Sweden U19 creates 314% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sweden U19
1.80
San Marino U19
0.50

allows per match

Sweden U19
1.20
San Marino U19
5.25

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par
San Marino U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

San Marino U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–14%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw
94%
Sweden U19 or San Marino U19
90%
Draw or San Marino U19
15%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+
68%
San Marino U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals
97%
Sweden U19 2+ goals
86%
Sweden U19 3+ goals
66%
San Marino U19 1+ goals
57%
San Marino U19 2+ goals
21%
San Marino U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)
94%
San Marino U19 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

San Marino U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.80 + San Marino U19 defence 5.25 → ÷2 → 3.52

San Marino U19 attack 0.50 + Sweden U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Sweden U19 scores more
85%
level
10%
San Marino U19 scores more
6%

Sweden U19 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
B. Mbunga-Kimpioka
60'
D. MorettiOwn goal
67'
D. Moretti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sweden U19 2 – 1 San Marino U19

Sweden U19 beat San Marino U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship on November 14, 2018.

Goals: B. Mbunga-Kimpioka (54'), D. Moretti (60' o.g., 67').

The match was played at Bangor University Stadium in Bangor.