Sweden U19 1–2 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Sweden U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norway U19

N. Sernelius 90+2'

A. Rønning 80'

N. Sernelius 72' (OG)

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sweden U1935%

×Draw24%

Norway U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.56

Sweden U19

1.44

Norway U19

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

1.57

1.54

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sweden U19

1.46

Norway U19

1.57

allows per match

Sweden U19

1.54

Norway U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw

60%

Sweden U19 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

65%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

16%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals

76%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

42%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

18%

Norway U19 1+ goals

79%

Norway U19 2+ goals

46%

Norway U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.46 + Norway U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Norway U19 attack 1.57 + Sweden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sweden U19 scores more

35%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

40%

Norway U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. El Abdellaoui← O. Spiten-Nysæter

57'

G. Nyheim← J. Gonstad

65'

A. Heredia-Randen← S. Sjøvold

65'

T. Nyhammer← W. Wendt

68'

S. Samuyiwa← S. Sjöholm

68'

Z. Loukili← W. Anderson

72'

N. SerneliusOwn goal

77'

E. Pihlström← K. Marrah

77'

J. Dos Reis Nikko← J. Mellberg

77'

K. Jawla← N. Mohudin

80'

A. Rønning

88'

J. El Abdellaoui

88'

L. Høyland← S. Olderheim

90+2'

N. Sernelius

Sweden

Norway

12

5

3

4

13

14

▼

Sjøvold

16

▼

Wendt

19

▼

Olderheim

7

▼

Gonstad

11

⚽

Rønning

17

▼

Spiten-Ny

1

Lundgren

2

Rashidi

4

▼

Mellberg

13

Hilvenius

14

Manneh

8

⚽🥅

Sernelius

6

Jeppsson

16

▼

Anderson

7

▼

Sjöholm

19

▼

Mohudin

20

▼

Marrah

Manager: A. Pettersson

68'▲S. Samuyiwa←▼S. Sjöholm

68'▲Z. Loukili←▼W. Anderson

77'▲E. Pihlström←▼K. Marrah

77'▲J. Dos Reis Nikko←▼J. Mellberg

77'▲K. Jawla←▼N. Mohudin

Sweden U19 substitutes

17Samuyiwa10Loukili11Pihlström15Nikko9Jawla18Uhrström

Manager: E. Sel

46'▲J. El Abdellaoui←▼O. Spiten-Nysæter

57'▲G. Nyheim←▼J. Gonstad

65'▲A. Heredia-Randen←▼S. Sjøvold

65'▲T. Nyhammer←▼W. Wendt

88'▲L. Høyland←▼S. Olderheim

Norway U19 substitutes

9Abdellaoui10Nyheim6Heredia-Randen8Nyhammer2Høyland20Reitan-Sunde15Hope18Granaas1Bergsvik

Match Recap: Sweden U19 vs Norway U19

Norway U19 beat Sweden U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2024.

Goals: N. Sernelius (72' o.g., 90+2'), A. Rønning (80').

The match was played at Borås Arena in Borås.

Sweden U19 vs Norway U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sweden U19 vs Norway U19