Sweden U19 3–0 Kosovo U19: Result & Stats

Sweden U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kosovo U19

A. Ahmed Fatah 73', 67'

W. Swedberg 38'

11/20/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sweden U1948%

×Draw23%

Kosovo U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19Expected goals in this matchKosovo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.31

Sweden U19

1.77

Kosovo U19

1.31

Sweden U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.46

creates per match

1.08

1.54

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Sweden U19

1.46

Kosovo U19

1.08

allows per match

Sweden U19

1.54

Kosovo U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

Kosovo U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw

72%

Sweden U19 or Kosovo U19

77%

Draw or Kosovo U19

52%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

26%

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals

83%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

53%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

26%

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

73%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

38%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.46 + Kosovo U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kosovo U19 attack 1.08 + Sweden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sweden U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Kosovo U19 scores more

28%

Sweden U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

D. Hazrollaj← D. Ajvazi

38'

W. Swedberg

46'

E. Maloku← A. Hasani

53'

H. Larsson

60'

E. Rashica

60'

R. Jashari

67'

A. Ahmed Fatah

69'

W. Swedberg

69'

D. Miftari

69'

A. Garcia-Tsotidis← R. Omorowa

70'

L. Björklund← W. Odefalk

73'

A. Ahmed Fatah

77'

A. Ahlstrand← H. Larsson

77'

K. Karlsson← A. Ahmed Fatah

81'

I. Jashari← A. Maloku

90'

B. Avdimetaj← E. Brruti

90'

M. Ayeti← E. Rashica

Sweden

Kosovo

1

17

21

5

2

10

▼

Brruti

8

▼

Ajvazi

4

Bllaca

11

▼

Rashica

23

▼

Hasani

14

▼

1

2

4

14

5

17

7

⚽

Swedberg

20

▼

Odefalk

8

▼

Larsson

10

⚽2

▼

Fatah

9

▼

Omorowa

Manager: V. Eriksson

69'▲A. Garcia-Tsotidis←▼R. Omorowa

70'▲L. Björklund←▼W. Odefalk

77'▲A. Ahlstrand←▼H. Larsson

77'▲K. Karlsson←▼A. Ahmed Fatah

Sweden U19 substitutes

16Garcia-Tsotidis11Björklund18Ahlstrand13Karlsson6Farnerud12Henareh15Karlsson3Amoran19Bergvall

Manager: R. Krasniqi

29'▲D. Hazrollaj←▼D. Ajvazi

46'▲E. Maloku←▼A. Hasani

81'▲I. Jashari←▼A. Maloku

90'▲B. Avdimetaj←▼E. Brruti

90'▲M. Ayeti←▼E. Rashica

Kosovo U19 substitutes

7Hazrollaj9Maloku18Jashari15Avdimetaj19Ayeti12Gjokaj22Kadriu3Mehaj20Selimi

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Sweden U19 3–0 Kosovo U19

Sweden U19 beat Kosovo U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 20, 2022.

Goals: W. Swedberg (38'), A. Ahmed Fatah (67', 73').

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.

Sweden U19 vs Kosovo U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Sweden U19 3–0 Kosovo U19