Sweden U19 1–2 Estonia U19: Result & Stats

Sweden U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Estonia U19

E. Pihlström 10'

M. Kalimullin 42'

R. Siht 35'

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sweden U1951%

×Draw24%

Estonia U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.09

Sweden U19

1.69

Estonia U19

1.09

Sweden U19 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.46

creates per match

0.64

1.54

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sweden U19

1.46

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Sweden U19

1.54

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw

75%

Sweden U19 or Estonia U19

76%

Draw or Estonia U19

49%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

28%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals

82%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

50%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

24%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

66%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

30%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.46 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Sweden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sweden U19 scores more

51%

level

24%

Estonia U19 scores more

25%

Sweden U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

14'

35'

42'

59'

63'

N. Sernelius← K. Marrah

63'

W. Uhrström← S. Samuyiwa

68'

A. Gashi

75'

M. Kukk

75'

A. Atlee Manneh← J. Dos Reis Nikko

77'

77'

81'

81'

85'

85'

A. Kollo← M. Kukk

90+3'

R. Nigula

90+4'

N. Ramming

90+8'

O. O. Valdaru

90+5'

W. Lundgren← E. Pihlström

90+2'

O. Valdaru← M. Skvortsov

Sweden

Estonia

12

16

8

4

2

▼

Kukk

14

⚽

Siht

21

▼

Kose

17

Lukas

9

▼

Skvortsov

10

⚽

Kalimulli

7

▼

Lohmatov

12

Ramming

15

▼

3

4

5

6

10

17

▼

Samuyiwa

11

⚽

▼

Pihlström

20

▼

Marrah

9

Jawla

Manager: A. Pettersson

63'▲N. Sernelius←▼K. Marrah

63'▲W. Uhrström←▼S. Samuyiwa

75'▲A. Atlee Manneh←▼J. Dos Reis Nikko

90+5'▲W. Lundgren←▼E. Pihlström

Sweden U19 substitutes

8Sernelius18Uhrström14Manneh1Lundgren13Hilvenius19Mohudin7Sjöholm16Anderson2Rashidi

Manager: A. Bärengrub

77'▲R. Müür←▼A. Lohmatov

77'▲R. Nigula←▼A. Kose

85'▲A. Kollo←▼M. Kukk

90+2'▲O. Valdaru←▼M. Skvortsov

Estonia U19 substitutes

11Müür3Nigula5Kollo18Valdaru13Wagner15Kajari20Kartau1Vainula6Laidvee