Sweden U19 2–0 Andorra U19: Result & Stats

Sweden U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Andorra U19

Alessio Burgos 48' (OG)

A. Qasem 9'

11/13/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sweden U1959%

×Draw23%

Andorra U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U19Expected goals in this matchAndorra U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.94

Sweden U19

1.85

Andorra U19

0.94

Sweden U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.46

creates per match

0.33

1.54

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Sweden U19

1.46

Andorra U19

0.33

allows per match

Sweden U19

1.54

Andorra U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Andorra U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U19 ↓

Andorra U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sweden U19 or draw

81%

Sweden U19 or Andorra U19

77%

Draw or Andorra U19

41%

Winning margin

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

34%

Andorra U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sweden U19 1+ goals

84%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

55%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

28%

Andorra U19 1+ goals

61%

Andorra U19 2+ goals

24%

Andorra U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Andorra U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U19 at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Andorra U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U19 attack 1.46 + Andorra U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Andorra U19 attack 0.33 + Sweden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sweden U19 scores more

59%

level

23%

Andorra U19 scores more

19%

Sweden U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sweden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Qasem

46'

Y. Ayari← W. Swedberg

48'

Alessio BurgosOwn goal

57'

E. Roback← L. Mattsson

58'

L. Nåvik← A. Qasem

59'

Gerard García← Daniel Carvalho

76'

Daniel Bienert← Ian Oliveira

76'

Fabio Montenegro Burgos← Eric Martinez

80'

C. Widell← E. Olsson

82'

Hugo Rodrigues← Eric Cerviño

82'

Marco Da Silva Machado← Pau Torra

Sweden

Andorra

13

Prat

4

Rodrigues

2

▼

Cerviño

5

▼

Oliveira

20

🥅

Burgos

18

▼

Carvalho

10

Müller

3

▼

Torra

14

Calvo

9

▼

7

12

14

4

▼

Olsson

15

Bonde

17

Amoran

13

▼

Mattsson

8

Björkqvis

18

Karlin

11

⚽

▼

Qasem

16

▼

Swedberg

9

Erabi

Manager: M. Jelečak

46'▲Y. Ayari←▼W. Swedberg

57'▲E. Roback←▼L. Mattsson

58'▲L. Nåvik←▼A. Qasem

80'▲C. Widell←▼E. Olsson

Sweden U19 substitutes

10Ayari7Roback6Nåvik3Widell1Ellborg2Motaraghebjafarpour5Dahl20Vilhelmsson

Manager: Eloy Casals

59'▲Gerard García←▼Daniel Carvalho

76'▲Daniel Bienert←▼Ian Oliveira

76'▲Fabio Montenegro Burgos←▼Eric Martinez

82'▲Hugo Rodrigues←▼Eric Cerviño

82'▲Marco Da Silva Machado←▼Pau Torra

Andorra U19 substitutes

11García6Bienert23Burgos19Rodrigues22Machado1Alvarez8Silva15Sanjuame17Romano