Sweden U18 W 1–3 Iceland U19 W: Result & Stats

Sweden U18 W

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Iceland U19 W

A. Mitkovska 29'

B. Hlynsdottir 89'

L. van Bemmel 56'

R. Jonsdottir 54'

6/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sweden U18 W34%

×Draw27%

Iceland U19 W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U18 WExpected goals in this matchIceland U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.33

Sweden U18 W

1.23

Iceland U19 W

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.13

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sweden U18 W

1.13

Iceland U19 W

1.67

allows per match

Sweden U18 W

1.00

Iceland U19 W

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U18 W+0.00on par

Iceland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U18 W ↓

Iceland U19 W →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sweden U18 W or draw

61%

Sweden U18 W or Iceland U19 W

73%

Draw or Iceland U19 W

66%

Winning margin

Sweden U18 W wins by 2+

15%

Iceland U19 W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sweden U18 W 1+ goals

71%

Sweden U18 W 2+ goals

35%

Sweden U18 W 3+ goals

13%

Iceland U19 W 1+ goals

74%

Iceland U19 W 2+ goals

38%

Iceland U19 W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sweden U18 W (draw refunded)

47%

Iceland U19 W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sweden U18 W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Iceland U19 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U18 W attack 1.13 + Iceland U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Iceland U19 W attack 1.67 + Sweden U18 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sweden U18 W scores more

34%

level

27%

Iceland U19 W scores more

39%

Iceland U19 W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Iceland U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

54'

56'

89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff