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Sweden U18 W vs Czech Republic U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Sweden U18 W
Sweden U18 W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Czech Republic U19 W
Czech Republic U19 W
12/1/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sweden U18 W40%
×Draw32%
Czech Republic U19 W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden U18 W
1.06
Czech Republic U19 W
0.83

Sweden U18 W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sweden U18 W
1.13
Czech Republic U19 W
0.67

allows per match

Sweden U18 W
1.00
Czech Republic U19 W
1.00

finishing

Sweden U18 W+0.00on par
Czech Republic U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U18 W ↓

Czech Republic U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sweden U18 W or draw
72%
Sweden U18 W or Czech Republic U19 W
68%
Draw or Czech Republic U19 W
60%

Winning margin

Sweden U18 W wins by 2+
16%
Czech Republic U19 W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sweden U18 W 1+ goals
65%
Sweden U18 W 2+ goals
29%
Sweden U18 W 3+ goals
9%
Czech Republic U19 W 1+ goals
56%
Czech Republic U19 W 2+ goals
20%
Czech Republic U19 W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sweden U18 W (draw refunded)
59%
Czech Republic U19 W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U18 W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Czech Republic U19 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U18 W attack 1.13 + Czech Republic U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Czech Republic U19 W attack 0.67 + Sweden U18 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sweden U18 W scores more
40%
level
32%
Czech Republic U19 W scores more
28%

Sweden U18 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sweden U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Sweden U18 W 0–0 Czech Republic U19 W

Sweden U18 W and Czech Republic U19 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on December 1, 2025.