Sweden U17 vs Bulgaria U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 12+ matches
Sweden U1739%
Bulgaria U1740%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 14 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sweden U17 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sweden U17 at home — creates 3.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches
Bulgaria U17 away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sweden U17 attack 3.07 + Bulgaria U17 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.95
Bulgaria U17 attack 2.33 + Sweden U17 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.98
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Bulgaria U17 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Bulgaria U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sweden U17 host Bulgaria U17 on Wednesday, 20 March 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Sweden U17 2–1 Bulgaria U17
Sweden U17 beat Bulgaria U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 20, 2024.
Goals: M. Boychev (52'), G. Antwi (59'), Å. Andersson (90+1').
The match was played at Stadionul Concordia in Chiajna.