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Sweden U16 W vs Mexico U16 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Sweden U16 W
Sweden U16 W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mexico U16 W
Mexico U16 W
A. Schonborg 56'
I. Prado 68'
M. Urbano 21'
4/14/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sweden U16 W38%
×Draw23%
Mexico U16 W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sweden U16 W
1.65
Mexico U16 W
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sweden U16 W
1.80
Mexico U16 W
1.00

allows per match

Sweden U16 W
2.40
Mexico U16 W
1.50

finishing

Sweden U16 W+0.00on par
Mexico U16 W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U16 W ↓

Mexico U16 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sweden U16 W or draw
60%
Sweden U16 W or Mexico U16 W
77%
Draw or Mexico U16 W
62%

Winning margin

Sweden U16 W wins by 2+
19%
Mexico U16 W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sweden U16 W 1+ goals
81%
Sweden U16 W 2+ goals
49%
Sweden U16 W 3+ goals
23%
Mexico U16 W 1+ goals
82%
Mexico U16 W 2+ goals
51%
Mexico U16 W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sweden U16 W (draw refunded)
49%
Mexico U16 W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sweden U16 W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Mexico U16 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U16 W attack 1.80 + Mexico U16 W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Mexico U16 W attack 1.00 + Sweden U16 W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sweden U16 W scores more
38%
level
23%
Mexico U16 W scores more
40%

Mexico U16 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mexico U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Urbano
56'
A. Schonborg
68'
I. Prado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sweden U16 W vs Mexico U16 W

Mexico U16 W beat Sweden U16 W 2-1 in Friendlies Women on April 14, 2025.

Goals: M. Urbano (21'), A. Schonborg (56'), I. Prado (68').