Sweden U16 W 0–2 Italy U16 W: Result & Stats

Sweden U16 W

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Italy U16 W

E. Fontana 71'

A. Pinchi 7'

5/27/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sweden U16 W23%

×Draw21%

Italy U16 W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sweden U16 WExpected goals in this matchItaly U16 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.04

Sweden U16 W

1.24

Italy U16 W

2.04

Italy U16 W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.67

2.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Sweden U16 W

1.80

Italy U16 W

1.67

allows per match

Sweden U16 W

2.40

Italy U16 W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sweden U16 W+0.00on par

Italy U16 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sweden U16 W ↓

Italy U16 W →

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sweden U16 W or draw

44%

Sweden U16 W or Italy U16 W

79%

Draw or Italy U16 W

77%

Winning margin

Sweden U16 W wins by 2+

Italy U16 W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Sweden U16 W 1+ goals

71%

Sweden U16 W 2+ goals

35%

Sweden U16 W 3+ goals

13%

Italy U16 W 1+ goals

87%

Italy U16 W 2+ goals

60%

Italy U16 W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Sweden U16 W (draw refunded)

29%

Italy U16 W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sweden U16 W at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Italy U16 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sweden U16 W attack 1.80 + Italy U16 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Italy U16 W attack 1.67 + Sweden U16 W defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sweden U16 W scores more

23%

level

21%

Italy U16 W scores more

56%

Italy U16 W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Italy U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Pinchi

71'

E. Fontana

Sweden

Italy

⚽

Sweden U16 W substitutes

12Olsson3Hertzell7Radsjo11Peterson14Andre16Ljungberg18Carruthers20Alexandersson

Italy U16 W substitutes

6Messa7Ciurleo8Galluzzi9Fontana10Sterner12Pezzi15Cacace17Lisica18Grigolo

Match Recap: Sweden U16 W vs Italy U16 W

Italy U16 W beat Sweden U16 W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on May 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Pinchi (7'), E. Fontana (71').

Sweden U16 W vs Italy U16 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sweden U16 W vs Italy U16 W