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Swaziland vs Tunisia — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Swaziland
Swaziland
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Tunisia
Tunisia
9/9/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 3Mavuso Sports Centre (Manzini)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swaziland16%
×Draw26%
Tunisia58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swaziland
0.67
Tunisia
1.54

Tunisia creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Swaziland
0.33
Tunisia
1.09

allows per match

Swaziland
2.00
Tunisia
1.00

finishing

Swaziland+0.00on par
Tunisia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swaziland ↓

Tunisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Swaziland or draw
42%
Swaziland or Tunisia
74%
Draw or Tunisia
84%

Winning margin

Swaziland wins by 2+
4%
Tunisia wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Swaziland 1+ goals
49%
Swaziland 2+ goals
15%
Swaziland 3+ goals
3%
Tunisia 1+ goals
79%
Tunisia 2+ goals
45%
Tunisia 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Swaziland (draw refunded)
22%
Tunisia (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swaziland at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Tunisia away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swaziland attack 0.33 + Tunisia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Tunisia attack 1.09 + Swaziland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Swaziland scores more
16%
level
26%
Tunisia scores more
58%

Tunisia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swaziland vs Tunisia

Tunisia beat Swaziland 2-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre (Manzini).