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Swarovski Tirol II vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
CANC
00:00
Zams
Zams
3/22/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 16Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Swarovski Tirol II79%
×Draw13%
Zams8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swarovski Tirol II
3.10
Zams
0.93

Swarovski Tirol II creates 233% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 29 away

creates per match

Swarovski Tirol II
2.90
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Swarovski Tirol II
1.00
Zams
3.31

finishing

Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swarovski Tirol II ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Swarovski Tirol II or draw
92%
Swarovski Tirol II or Zams
87%
Draw or Zams
21%

Winning margin

Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
60%
Zams wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
95%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
81%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
58%
Zams 1+ goals
61%
Zams 2+ goals
24%
Zams 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
91%
Zams (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swarovski Tirol II at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.90 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 3.10

Zams attack 0.86 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Swarovski Tirol II scores more
79%
level
13%
Zams scores more
8%

Swarovski Tirol II at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swarovski Tirol II face Zams (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with Swarovski Tirol II hosting Zams. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swarovski Tirol II host Zams at Gernot Langes Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.