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Swarovski Tirol II vs St. Johann in Tirol — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
St. Johann in Tirol
St. Johann in Tirol
5/4/2025Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 21Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Swarovski Tirol II56%
×Draw20%
St. Johann in Tirol24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swarovski Tirol II
2.25
St. Johann in Tirol
1.44

Swarovski Tirol II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Swarovski Tirol II
2.90
St. Johann in Tirol
1.89

allows per match

Swarovski Tirol II
1.00
St. Johann in Tirol
1.61

finishing

Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par
St. Johann in Tirol+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swarovski Tirol II ↓

St. Johann in Tirol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Swarovski Tirol II or draw
76%
Swarovski Tirol II or St. Johann in Tirol
80%
Draw or St. Johann in Tirol
44%

Winning margin

Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
34%
St. Johann in Tirol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
89%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
65%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
39%
St. Johann in Tirol 1+ goals
76%
St. Johann in Tirol 2+ goals
42%
St. Johann in Tirol 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
70%
St. Johann in Tirol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swarovski Tirol II at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

St. Johann in Tirol away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.90 + St. Johann in Tirol defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.25

St. Johann in Tirol attack 1.89 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Swarovski Tirol II scores more
56%
level
20%
St. Johann in Tirol scores more
24%

Swarovski Tirol II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swarovski Tirol II vs St. Johann in Tirol

St. Johann in Tirol beat Swarovski Tirol II 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Gernot Langes Stadion in Wattens.