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Swarovski Tirol II vs Kirchbichl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Swarovski Tirol II
Swarovski Tirol II
CANC
22:00
Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
5/8/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 23Gernot Langes Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Swarovski Tirol II62%
×Draw18%
Kirchbichl20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swarovski Tirol II
2.54
Kirchbichl
1.39

Swarovski Tirol II creates 83% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

creates per match

Swarovski Tirol II
2.90
Kirchbichl
1.77

allows per match

Swarovski Tirol II
1.00
Kirchbichl
2.18

finishing

Swarovski Tirol II+0.00on par
Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swarovski Tirol II ↓

Kirchbichl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Swarovski Tirol II or draw
80%
Swarovski Tirol II or Kirchbichl
82%
Draw or Kirchbichl
38%

Winning margin

Swarovski Tirol II wins by 2+
41%
Kirchbichl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Swarovski Tirol II 1+ goals
92%
Swarovski Tirol II 2+ goals
72%
Swarovski Tirol II 3+ goals
46%
Kirchbichl 1+ goals
75%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
40%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swarovski Tirol II (draw refunded)
76%
Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swarovski Tirol II at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swarovski Tirol II attack 2.90 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.54

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Swarovski Tirol II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Swarovski Tirol II scores more
62%
level
18%
Kirchbichl scores more
20%

Swarovski Tirol II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Swarovski Tirol II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swarovski Tirol II face Kirchbichl (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with Swarovski Tirol II hosting Kirchbichl. Match starts May 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swarovski Tirol II host Kirchbichl at Gernot Langes Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.