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Swansea vs Wolves — Championship 2025

Swansea
Swansea
Preview
15:00
Wolves
Wolves
3/20/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 39Swansea.com Stadium
38%
Swansea
model favours
38%26%36%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Swansea38%
×Draw26%
Wolves36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.32
Wolves
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 19 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.49
Wolves
1.53

allows per match

Swansea
1.00
Wolves
1.16

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
64%
Swansea or Wolves
74%
Draw or Wolves
62%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
17%
Wolves wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
73%
Swansea 2+ goals
38%
Swansea 3+ goals
15%
Wolves 1+ goals
72%
Wolves 2+ goals
36%
Wolves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
52%
Wolves (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.49 + Wolves defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wolves attack 1.53 + Swansea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swansea scores more
38%
level
26%
Wolves scores more
36%

Swansea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Wolves score first in only 15% of matches
  • Wolves win just 0% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Swansea and Wolves have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Swansea
WDWLW
Wolves
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Swansea host Wolves

March 20, 2027: Swansea take on Wolves in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Swansea host Wolves at Swansea.com Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.