Swansea 3–2 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Swansea

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Reading

J. Fulton 74'

O. Cooper 60'

H. Darling 41'

T. Ince 33'

Y. Meïté 26'

10/18/2022

Championship · Round 16Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Swansea46%

×Draw26%

Reading27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Swansea

1.44

Reading

1.04

Swansea creates 38% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 112 away

1.39

creates per match

0.99

1.09

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Swansea

1.39

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Swansea

1.09

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

73%

Swansea or Reading

74%

Draw or Reading

54%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

23%

Reading wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

76%

Swansea 2+ goals

42%

Swansea 3+ goals

18%

Reading 1+ goals

65%

Reading 2+ goals

28%

Reading 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

63%

Reading (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.09 · 181 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.39 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.44

Reading attack 0.99 + Swansea defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Swansea scores more

46%

level

26%

Reading scores more

27%

Swansea at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Y. Meïté

Reading · F

8.3

Match Events

26'

Y. Meïté

33'

T. Ince↳ Y. Meïté

41'

H. Darling↳ M. Grimes

45'

Andy Yiadom

46'

A. Oko-Flex← N. Wood-Gordon

56'

60'

62'

62'

65'

74'

78'

81'

K. Naughton← L. Cundle

87'

F. Stevens← A. Oko-Flex

90+3'

O. Ntcham← O. Cooper

90+3'

L. Cullen← M. Obafemi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaReading

Overview

74%Possession26%

13Total Shots7

8Corners0

2Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target4

5Off Target0

3Blocked3

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

698Total Passes246

629Accurate Passes177

90%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

2Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1