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Swansea vs Peterborough — Championship 2018

Swansea
Swansea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
O. Ntcham 45+1'
J. Piroe 13'
J. Bidwell 2'
10/30/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Swansea59%
×Draw23%
Peterborough18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.83
Peterborough
0.89

Swansea creates 106% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 25 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.39
Peterborough
0.68

allows per match

Swansea
1.09
Peterborough
2.28

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
82%
Swansea or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
41%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
34%
Peterborough wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
84%
Swansea 2+ goals
54%
Swansea 3+ goals
28%
Peterborough 1+ goals
59%
Peterborough 2+ goals
22%
Peterborough 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
77%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.09 · 181 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.39 + Peterborough defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.83

Peterborough attack 0.68 + Swansea defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Swansea scores more
59%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
18%

Swansea at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. PiroeSwanseaSwansea · F
8.2

Match Events

2'
J. Bidwell↳ E. Laird
13'
J. Piroe↳ R. Manning
45'
D. Butler← H. Burrows
45+1'
O. Ntcham↳ J. Piroe
54'
J. Clarke-Harris← J. Grant
59'
J. Ward← I. Kanu
63'
Ryan Manning
63'
M. Obafemi← J. Piroe
73'
F. Downes← O. Ntcham
79'
M. Whittaker← E. Laird
83'
Flynn Downes

Possession

67%Swansea

Shots

13Swansea

Pass accuracy

53%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaPeterborough
Overview
67%Possession33%
13Total Shots2
7Corners3
7Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots2
5On Target1
5Off Target1
3Blocked0
6Inside Box2
7Outside Box0
Passing
67%Possession33%
779Total Passes379
716Accurate Passes312
92%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Championship: Swansea 3–0 Peterborough

Swansea beat Peterborough 3-0 in Championship on October 30, 2021.

Goals: J. Bidwell (2'), J. Piroe (13'), O. Ntcham (45+1').

Swansea controlled possession (67%) and registered 13 shots to 2.

The match was played at Swansea.com Stadium in Swansea.