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Swansea vs Manchester United — Premier League 2026

Swansea
Swansea
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Manchester United
Manchester United
M. van der Hoorn 69'
Z. Ibrahimović 33', 21'
P. Pogba 15'
11/6/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea35%
×Draw26%
Manchester United39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.29
Manchester United
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 199 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Manchester United
1.40

allows per match

Swansea
1.38
Manchester United
1.30

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
Manchester United+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Manchester United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
61%
Swansea or Manchester United
74%
Draw or Manchester United
65%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
15%
Manchester United wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
72%
Swansea 2+ goals
37%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Manchester United 1+ goals
75%
Manchester United 2+ goals
40%
Manchester United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
47%
Manchester United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 199 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Manchester United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manchester United attack 1.40 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Swansea scores more
35%
level
26%
Manchester United scores more
39%

Manchester United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Z. IbrahimovićManchester UnitedManchester United · F
8.5

Match Events

15'
P. Pogba
21'
Z. Ibrahimović↳ W. Rooney
33'
Z. Ibrahimović↳ W. Rooney
46'
M. Barrow← W. Routledge
46'
J. Montero← Llorente
69'
M. van der Hoorn↳ G. Sigurðsson
70'
L. Fer← L. Britton
76'
Zlatan Ibrahimović
80'
Juan Mata
81'
J. Lingard← Mata
89'
M. Schneiderlin← W. Rooney
90+4'
T. Fosu-Mensah← P. Pogba

Possession

37%Swansea

Shots

6Swansea

Pass accuracy

47%Swansea

Statistics

SwanseaManchester
Overview
37%Possession63%
6Total Shots9
2Corners0
9Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target3
2Off Target5
3Blocked1
2Inside Box7
4Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
449Total Passes762
366Accurate Passes695
82%Pass Accuracy91%
Discipline
9Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Premier League: Swansea 1–3 Manchester United

Manchester United beat Swansea 3-1 in Premier League on November 6, 2016.

Goals: P. Pogba (15'), Z. Ibrahimović (21', 33'), M. van der Hoorn (69').

Manchester United controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.