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Swansea vs Liverpool — Premier League 2026

Swansea
Swansea
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Liverpool
Liverpool
5/1/2016Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 36Liberty Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea30%
×Draw25%
Liverpool45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swansea
1.27
Liverpool
1.60

Liverpool creates 26% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 201 away

creates per match

Swansea
1.27
Liverpool
1.83

allows per match

Swansea
1.38
Liverpool
1.27

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par
Liverpool+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Liverpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Swansea or draw
55%
Swansea or Liverpool
75%
Draw or Liverpool
70%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+
13%
Liverpool wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals
72%
Swansea 2+ goals
36%
Swansea 3+ goals
14%
Liverpool 1+ goals
80%
Liverpool 2+ goals
47%
Liverpool 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)
40%
Liverpool (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.27 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Liverpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swansea scores more
30%
level
25%
Liverpool scores more
45%

Liverpool at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Swansea 3–1 Liverpool

Swansea beat Liverpool 3-1 in Premier League on May 1, 2016.

The match was played at Liberty Stadium in Swansea.