Swansea 1–3 Leicester: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

A. Idah 70' (pen)

J. Vestergaard 85'

I. Fatawu 77'

J. James 13'

10/4/2025

Championship · Round 9Swansea.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Swansea36%

×Draw27%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.27

Swansea

1.25

Leicester

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

1.18

creates per match

1.34

1.19

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Swansea

1.18

Leicester

1.34

allows per match

Swansea

1.19

Leicester

1.31

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Swansea+0.07on par

Leicester-0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

63%

Swansea or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

64%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

16%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

71%

Swansea 2+ goals

36%

Swansea 3+ goals

13%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

49%

Leicester (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 20 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.18 + Leicester defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Leicester attack 1.34 + Swansea defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swansea scores more

36%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

37%

Leicester at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Vestergaard

Leicester · D

8.3

Match Events

13'

J. James↳ H. Winks

58'

A. Ramsey← B. De Cordova-Reid

65'

Z. Inoussa← J. Eom

65'

A. Idah← Z. Vipotnik

66'

E. Galbraith← L. Cullen

70'

A. IdahPenalty

71'

76'

77'

82'

83'

M. Yalcouye← G. Franco

83'

B. Manuel Hedilazio← Ronald

85'

J. Vestergaard

86'

B. Soumare← J. James

86'

J. Carranza← J. Monga

90+1'

C. Okoli← R. Pereira

90'

S. Thomas← I. Fatawu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwanseaLeicester

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots17

1.84Expected Goals (xG)1.65

2Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots17

7On Target7

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

7Inside Box12

6Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

500Total Passes413

433Accurate Passes344

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3