Swansea 2–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Swansea

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

W. Bony 57', 34'

10/25/2014

Premier League · Round 9Liberty Stadium (Swansea)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Swansea38%

×Draw25%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SwanseaExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.42

Swansea

1.44

Leicester

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 170 away

1.27

creates per match

1.45

1.38

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Swansea

1.27

Leicester

1.45

allows per match

Swansea

1.38

Leicester

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swansea+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swansea ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swansea or draw

63%

Swansea or Leicester

75%

Draw or Leicester

62%

Winning margin

Swansea wins by 2+

18%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Swansea 1+ goals

76%

Swansea 2+ goals

42%

Swansea 3+ goals

18%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Swansea (draw refunded)

51%

Leicester (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swansea at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 74 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swansea attack 1.27 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.44

Leicester attack 1.45 + Swansea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Swansea scores more

38%

level

25%

Leicester scores more

37%

Swansea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

W. Bony↳ G. Sigurðsson

57'

W. Bony↳ J. Montero

58'

T. Carroll← G. Sigurðsson

67'

M. James← J. Vardy

68'

A. King← D. Hammond

68'

E. Cambiasso← D. Drinkwater

83'

N. Dyer← W. Routledge

83'

B. Gomis← W. Bony

Swansea

Leicester

1

3

5

2

18

7

▼

Hammond

4

▼

35

23

26

9

▼

1

3

6

22

33

15

▼

Routledge

4

Ki

8

Shelvey

23

A

▼

Sigurðsso

10

⚽2

▼

Bony

20

A

Montero

58'▲T. Carroll←▼G. Sigurðsson

83'▲N. Dyer←▼W. Routledge

83'▲B. Gomis←▼W. Bony

Swansea substitutes

14Carroll12Dyer18Gomis11Emnes25Tremmel27Bartley32Shephard

67'▲M. James←▼J. Vardy

68'▲A. King←▼D. Hammond

68'▲E. Cambiasso←▼D. Drinkwater

Leicester substitutes

8James10King19Cambiasso15Schlupp27Wasilewski31Smith39Wood