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Swan City vs Miami AC — USL League Two 2018

Swan City
Swan City
FT
1 – 0
Miami AC
Miami AC
6/23/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 12Moccasin Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City36%
×Draw28%
Miami AC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swan City
1.18
Miami AC
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

creates per match

Swan City
1.00
Miami AC
1.32

allows per match

Swan City
1.08
Miami AC
1.36

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par
Miami AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Miami AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Swan City or draw
63%
Swan City or Miami AC
72%
Draw or Miami AC
64%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+
15%
Miami AC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals
69%
Swan City 2+ goals
33%
Swan City 3+ goals
12%
Miami AC 1+ goals
70%
Miami AC 2+ goals
34%
Miami AC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)
49%
Miami AC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Miami AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Miami AC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Miami AC attack 1.32 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swan City scores more
36%
level
28%
Miami AC scores more
37%

Miami AC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Miami AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Swan City vs Miami AC

Swan City beat Miami AC 1-0 in USL League Two on June 23, 2024.

The match was played at Moccasin Field in Lakeland, Florida.