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Swan City vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Swan City
Swan City
FT
0 – 2
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
6/17/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 9Thomas W. Bryant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Swan City36%
×Draw27%
Florida Elite37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swan City
1.21
Florida Elite
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 27 away

creates per match

Swan City
1.00
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Swan City
1.08
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Swan City+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swan City ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Swan City or draw
63%
Swan City or Florida Elite
73%
Draw or Florida Elite
64%

Winning margin

Swan City wins by 2+
15%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Swan City 1+ goals
70%
Swan City 2+ goals
34%
Swan City 3+ goals
12%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
71%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
35%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Swan City (draw refunded)
49%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swan City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swan City attack 1.00 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Swan City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Swan City scores more
36%
level
27%
Florida Elite scores more
37%

Florida Elite at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Swan City 0–2 Florida Elite

Florida Elite beat Swan City 2-0 in USL League Two on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Thomas W. Bryant Stadium in Lakeland, Florida.