Swaffham Town 0–3 Walsham Le Willows

Swaffham Town

0 – 3

Walsham Le Willows

8/7/2021

League #45 · Extra Preliminary RoundShoemakers Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Swaffham Town14%

×Draw16%

Walsham Le Willows70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swaffham TownExpected goals in this matchWalsham Le Willows

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.75

Swaffham Town

1.17

Walsham Le Willows

2.75

Walsham Le Willows creates 135% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

3.00

2.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Swaffham Town

1.00

Walsham Le Willows

3.00

allows per match

Swaffham Town

2.50

Walsham Le Willows

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swaffham Town+0.00on par

Walsham Le Willows+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swaffham Town ↓

Walsham Le Willows →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Swaffham Town or draw

30%

Swaffham Town or Walsham Le Willows

84%

Draw or Walsham Le Willows

86%

Winning margin

Swaffham Town wins by 2+

Walsham Le Willows wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Swaffham Town 1+ goals

69%

Swaffham Town 2+ goals

33%

Swaffham Town 3+ goals

11%

Walsham Le Willows 1+ goals

93%

Walsham Le Willows 2+ goals

75%

Walsham Le Willows 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Swaffham Town (draw refunded)

17%

Walsham Le Willows (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Swaffham Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Walsham Le Willows away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Swaffham Town attack 1.00 + Walsham Le Willows defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Walsham Le Willows attack 3.00 + Swaffham Town defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Swaffham Town scores more

14%

level

16%

Walsham Le Willows scores more

70%

Walsham Le Willows at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Walsham Le Willows will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff