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SW Essen vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
2/11/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 16Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

SW Essen53%
×Draw21%
TVD Velbert25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
2.08
TVD Velbert
1.38

SW Essen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 72 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
75%
SW Essen or TVD Velbert
79%
Draw or TVD Velbert
47%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
32%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
87%
SW Essen 2+ goals
61%
SW Essen 3+ goals
34%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
75%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
40%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
68%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.08

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SW Essen scores more
53%
level
21%
TVD Velbert scores more
25%

SW Essen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SW Essen 1–1 TVD Velbert

SW Essen and TVD Velbert drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.