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SW Essen vs Teutonia St.Tönis — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
1 – 1
Teutonia St.Tönis
Teutonia St.Tönis
10/7/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 7Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SW Essen46%
×Draw22%
Teutonia St.Tönis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
1.98
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.65

SW Essen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 21 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.90

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
Teutonia St.Tönis
1.86

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
67%
SW Essen or Teutonia St.Tönis
78%
Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis
54%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
26%
Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
86%
SW Essen 2+ goals
59%
SW Essen 3+ goals
31%
Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals
81%
Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals
49%
Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
58%
Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SW Essen scores more
46%
level
22%
Teutonia St.Tönis scores more
33%

SW Essen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SW Essen vs Teutonia St.Tönis

SW Essen and Teutonia St.Tönis drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.