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SW Essen vs SF Hamborn — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SW Essen
SW Essen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SF Hamborn
SF Hamborn
5/4/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 31Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SW Essen56%
×Draw20%
SF Hamborn24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SW Essen
2.34
SF Hamborn
1.50

SW Essen creates 56% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 37 away

creates per match

SW Essen
2.10
SF Hamborn
1.62

allows per match

SW Essen
1.39
SF Hamborn
2.59

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par
SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

SF Hamborn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw
76%
SW Essen or SF Hamborn
80%
Draw or SF Hamborn
44%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+
35%
SF Hamborn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals
90%
SW Essen 2+ goals
67%
SW Essen 3+ goals
41%
SF Hamborn 1+ goals
78%
SF Hamborn 2+ goals
44%
SF Hamborn 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)
70%
SF Hamborn (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.34

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SW Essen scores more
56%
level
20%
SF Hamborn scores more
24%

SW Essen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SW Essen vs SF Hamborn

SW Essen beat SF Hamborn 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Uhlenkrugstadion in Essen.