SW Essen 3–2 SC St. Tönis: Result & Stats

SW Essen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SC St. Tönis

A. Gusic 90+3'

N. Bosnjak 70'

F. Lach 44'

K. Nakano 85'

A. Milaj 51'

5/4/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Uhlenkrugstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

SW Essen42%

×Draw22%

SC St. Tönis36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SW EssenExpected goals in this matchSC St. Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.68

SW Essen

1.83

SC St. Tönis

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 70 away

2.10

creates per match

1.97

1.39

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

SW Essen

2.10

SC St. Tönis

1.97

allows per match

SW Essen

1.39

SC St. Tönis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SW Essen+0.00on par

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SW Essen ↓

SC St. Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SW Essen or draw

64%

SW Essen or SC St. Tönis

78%

Draw or SC St. Tönis

58%

Winning margin

SW Essen wins by 2+

22%

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SW Essen 1+ goals

84%

SW Essen 2+ goals

54%

SW Essen 3+ goals

28%

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

81%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

50%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SW Essen (draw refunded)

54%

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SW Essen at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SW Essen attack 2.10 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.83

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + SW Essen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SW Essen scores more

42%

level

22%

SC St. Tönis scores more

36%

SW Essen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

F. Lach

51'

A. Milaj

70'

N. Bosnjak

85'

K. Nakano

90+3'

A. Gusic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff